Will Modi Sarkar prevail?

By- G Sai Prashanth, Ananya Sriram, Lalitha H, Vaishnavi K, Vaishavi Arulla, Aradhya, Shradha

A massive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party has been anticipated by exit polls, with some speculating that the BJP-led National Developmental Alliance's score would surpass 400, the mark that the party established with its 'ab ki baar 400 par' slogan. Anticipating the Indian election polls due on June 4, 2024, stakes are high, with each party battling to acquire seats and become the ruling party.

Rahul Gandhi, the head of the Congress, called the exit poll exercise a "fantasy poll." When asked how many seats the INDIA Opposition will win, Mr. Gandhi used the hit song by Punjabi singer Sidhu Moose Wala and stated that the opposition alliance will win 295 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. "Have you listened to 295 by Sidhu Moose Wala? 295," Mr. Gandhi stated to the news agency ANI, a day before Tuesday's vote counting.

Picture Credits: The Mint

In Congress-ruled Karnataka, several exit polls predicted a resounding victory for the BJP, while the India TV-CNX survey predicted the Telugu Desam Party, led by Chandrababu Naidu, and the NDA would win handily in the state of Andhra Pradesh. While leaders of the BJP celebrated the exit poll results, leaders of the opposition INDIA bloc rejected the results, claiming that they would be forming the government at the centre with at least 295 seats. Champai Soren, the chief minister of Jharkhand, predicted that the India bloc would win over 295 seats nationwide and over 10 seats in the state.

Another blow to the Congress is that polls suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win five of the six seats in Himachal Pradesh. According to Axis My India MD Pradeep Gupta, the saffron party and the traditional Congress are fighting it out for one seat. The exit polls also indicated that the left-led alliance would lose in Kerala and that the NDA would rule Karnataka and Maharashtra. Exit polls in Bengal indicated that the BJP would perform better than they did in the previous election. According to the majority of exit polls, the BJP will now have the most Lok Sabha seats in Bengal. Axis My India exit polls in the state of Andhra Pradesh predicted Naidu's Telugu Desam Party to win 78–96 seats, while the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party is predicted to win 55–77 seats. This raises the total number of seats held by the NDA to 98–120, compared to the YSRCP's projection of 55–77 seats. According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is expected to win soundly in Delhi and the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party combination may gain one seat.

Credits: India Today

In an interview with the Indian Express, Shashi Tharoor commented, “The exit poll numbers are quite shocking. The feedback that was observed on the ground does not reflect on the exit polls. The exit poll numbers for the BJP have skyrocketed, contrary to what has been witnessed on the ground.

According to the Hindu, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) nation convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal stated that the exit polls that predicted a thumping victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the polls were “fake” and that the surveys had been released to “demoralise” opposition party workers.

“These exit polls are nothing but mind games to drive you into depression,” Mr. Kejriwal said, addressing AAP workers at the party headquarters. “You must remain there (counting centres) till the final counting is done to prevent any chances of manipulation in the election results. Five percent of the VVPATs are matched with EVMs. If there is any discrepancy, we can expose their EVM scam.”

Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, stated on Sunday that the exit poll forecasts were "manufactured at home" two months ago and did not align with the actual situation. She attacked the media for displaying such exit polls and asserted that they were worthless. "The methods used for the exit surveys in 2016, 2019, and 2021 were seen by us. "None of the forecasts came true," she said to TV9-Bangla.

Annamalai rejected the prediction and exuded confidence in winning the seat. Speaking to India Today, the BJP candidate said, "We would love to give you a pleasant surprise on June 4, and we should win comfortably. The larger picture is that Modi ji has to come back with a big mandate."

Akhilesh Yadav asked the workers of the INDIA block to closely monitor the electronic voting machines prior to the counting day. According to NDTV, Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri shared that he was optimistic that the BJP will secure 350 seats and the NDA will end with approximately 400 seats.

Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar commented on the NDA on June 1, stating to media persons in the News Minute, “I don’t believe these exit polls. You will see the Congress ending up in double digits in Karnataka on June 4. You field reporters know the actual picture. You have to give the right predictions.”

He was then asked about the INDIA bloc not crossing the 150 mark in the exit polls, to which he said, “I have stated earlier that I don’t believe any exit polls. I got a call saying exit polls are only projecting 2 or 3 seats for the Congress in Karnataka.”

The Deputy Chief Minister was confident that the polls would be wrong, referring to the previous Assembly elections and stating, "Exit polls had predicted that the Congress party would not come to power during the last Assembly elections, but they were wrong. Exit polls had given only about 80–85 seats to Congress, but I had predicted we would win 136 seats as per the survey we had conducted. We eventually won 136 seats."

Compared to other electoral democracies, India has historically had greater voter turnout; thus, this year's considerable decline in voter turnout is concerning. Long-term voter indifference has the potential to threaten democracy itself. It is important to remember that exit polls are not always accurate; even if they were forecast to show a landslide victory for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, they can also not always be trusted. Poll analyst Prashant Kishor has appealed to the public not to waste their "valuable" time on "loudmouth politicians," "fake journalists," and social media pundits following exit polls that predicted the BJP-led NDA would win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections handily.